Will the NDIS actually save the Budget?

Friday, a hectic day it was

Friday was a busy day in the committees. I promised to provide a summary of the Senate Community Affairs Legislation Committee's final report on its inquiry (aph.gov.au) on the National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026. It didn't get tabled until the very last moments of business, perhaps as expected, and it's over 140 pages. Also from Friday was the much-followed public hearings on KPMG and the bill to amend the social media legislation for under 16yo's; those transcripts are not yet available, summaries tomorrow.

Here is your summary on the NDIS report, making today's edition quite long, but it will be worth your time.

Recommendation - that the bill be passed. The Interim Report's four recommendations* are not carried forward, though referred to. The final report is scoped narrowly to the House's proposed amendments, not the bill in its entirety. On the two measures the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights flagged**, it finds the amendments sufficient: on permanence, that applicants will not face treatment beyond what is appropriate, that restrictive practices are excluded, and that appropriate treatment must be available through Medicare, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) or the public system; on support determinations, that the amendments strike the right balance, relying on government intent to quarantine employment, disability-related health and 24/7 supports.

Additional to the committee:

• Additional comments from the Coalition - supports passage, but from the opposite direction: it considers the bill does too little on fraud, pointing to Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) data that up to 10 per cent of claims are fraudulent (~A$5 billion this year), against modelling showing the integrity measures recover A$300 million a year with no budget impact until 2027-28. Notes the Australian Federal Police (AFP) told the committee the legislation will not affect organised crime networks. Also says the bill lacks adequate safeguards for people found ineligible.
• Dissenting report from the Australian Greens - the bill goes too far, too fast and should not pass. Focuses on workforce: 51,000+ full-time equivalent jobs lost, and the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing's admission that it did no workforce modelling for the bill. Wants comprehensive workforce modelling before any implementation, and a 25 per cent gas export tax as the alternative to the Budget's savings from NDIS.
• Dissenting report from Senator D Pocock (Independent) - citing specific evidence, wants the social, community and civic participation (SCCP) reductions removed, or made individually assessed; automated decision-making (ADM) involving evaluative judgment delayed until the government-wide framework and oversight body recommended by the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme exist; human merits review guaranteed; access restrictions held until foundational supports are funded, operating and accessible; quarterly reporting to Parliament; and a published gender impact assessment.

*Those being: a reform roadmap, states delivering the A$10 billion foundational supports commitment, and clarification of permanence, functional capacity assessments, automated decision-making safeguards and social, community and civic participation impacts.

**The report mentions the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights once, at paragraph 1.45, pointing back to the committee's Interim Report. By contrast, the Senate Standing Committee for the Scrutiny of Bills gets three paragraphs and a full list of its concerns about delegated legislation.

Now, to this week

Two deadlines land today: at midday the government must table the official correspondence from the Government of Japan about the Prime Minister's public remarks, under an order the Senate agreed on Thursday 36 votes to 24. Senator Paterson (Liberal) has since referred the leak of the Japanese note to the Australian Federal Police, and Senator Cash (Liberal) will bring an urgency motion on the Prime Minister's conduct this afternoon. The second deadline is the one your board will care about. Here's where to watch.

Today, in the House

The Leader of the House has given notice of a suspension motion that maps out tomorrow in unusual detail. If it passes, the Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) goes through consideration in detail with ten minutes per question and a hard stop at 5.30 pm, the National Self-exclusion Register (Cost Recovery Levy) Amendment Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) follows immediately with all amendments deemed moved, and then the five news bargaining bills take priority until 7.30 pm and again from 8pm until 10pm, after which the House adjourns until 9am Wednesday.

That five-bill package was only introduced on Thursday: the News Journalism Payments Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) and its consequential bill (aph.gov.au) from Minister Wells (Labor), and the News Media Bargaining (Administration) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au), the News Media Bargaining Charge Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) and the Treasury Laws Amendment (News Media Bargaining) (Consequential) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) from Dr Mulino (Assistant Treasurer). Four sitting days from first reading to third reading, and the Senate Selection of Bills Committee (aph.gov.au) has deferred four of the five to its next meeting, so there is still no inquiry attached to any of them.

The Social Security and Other Legislation Amendment (Technical Changes No. 2) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) and the Administrative and Judicial Review Legislation Amendment Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) are both being sent to the Federation Chamber at the adjournment of their second reading debates, which leaves the Universities Accord (Opening the Doors of Opportunity) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) as the only bill to finish in the chamber. The question goes first on the amendment moved by Ryan (Independent), calling on the government to direct the new Tertiary Education Commission to treat the Job-Ready Graduates funding rates as an urgent priority. O'Brien (Nationals) also puts Human Rights (Children Born Alive Protection) Bill 2026 for first reading.

Two crossbench second reading amendments are still live on the gambling bill, from Chaney (Independent) and Watson-Brown (Greens), the second of which would decline the bill a second reading outright. The Biosecurity Amendment (Improving Operational Efficiency) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) and the Wine and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) both cleared their third readings and are listed in the Senate today for concurrence.

Today, in the Senate

Senator Gatenby is being sworn in for Tasmania, filling the seat Senator Askew (Liberal) resigned. A letter from Senator Whish-Wilson (Greens) dated Friday, and the President's letter to the Governor of Tasmania will also be tabled. The National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) leads government business, with the Community Affairs Legislation Committee report (aph.gov.au) received on Friday and Senator McAllister's interim response on the impact analysis corrections tabled for consideration today. The Crimes and Other Legislation Amendment (Omnibus No. 1) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) returns to committee stage, where Senator McKim (Greens) is pressing on the shift from purity to gross weight in assessing drug quantities, which would count cutting agents and concealment materials towards the weight of the drug itself. The Cash Distribution Framework Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) and its companion (aph.gov.au) are listed subject to introduction, with the ACCC's Armaguard undertaking expiring next month.

The timing to watch is the Environment and Communications Legislation Committee's report (aph.gov.au) on the gambling bills, due today, one day before the House is scheduled to vote them through all stages.

Thursday's other unresolved business is the widows and spouses tax. Senator Cash (Liberal) tried to suspend standing orders to bring on the Treasury Laws Amendment (Removing the Widows and Spouses Tax) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au), which she co-sponsored with Senator Canavan (Nationals) and Senator D Pocock (Independent), and lost 25 to 33. Senator McKim conceded the problem is real and said the Greens would fix it, but not in an hour; Senator Gallagher (Labor) pointed to Treasury's draft legislation, on which consultation closes this Friday. Senator D Pocock voted with the Coalition on both divisions.

On the Selection of Bills report, Greens attempts to refer the counter-terrorism and foreign relations bills were defeated 12 to 33 with Labor, the Coalition and One Nation all in the noes together, while One Nation's own Protecting Australians from Foreign Terrorist Fighters Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) was referred without a division, reporting 7 September. The Wage Justice for Early Childhood Education and Care Workers bill (aph.gov.au) was referred too, with the government pulling the reporting date forward from 8 October to 4 September, 34 votes to 25.

Today, in the committee rooms

Everything sitting today is the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties (aph.gov.au). The Public Works Committee (aph.gov.au) tables Report 5/2026 on its March referrals after Question Time, and the Petitions Committee (aph.gov.au) reports at 10 am. Two reporting dates moved on Thursday: the illegal tobacco inquiry (aph.gov.au) to 28 August, and the Select Committee on Productivity in Australia (aph.gov.au) all the way out to 31 March 2027, six months later than its original date and a fortnight after its interim report on housing.

Also tabled in the Senate today for consideration: the Clean Energy Regulator's renewable energy target report for 2025, six months of financial statements from the CFMEU construction division administrator, the government's response to the Independent National Security Legislation Monitor's review of continuing detention orders, the government's response to the independent review of the HELP Debt Reduction Program, and the Commonwealth Ombudsman's twenty-sixth immigration detention report. Summaries tomorrow.

Until tomorrow!

— Mia