Tax clock ticking toward Thursday

Estimates didn't disappoint yesterday, now for today...

The House sits 9am to 8pm today. Yesterday's chamber was consumed by two competing legislative conversations - the NDIS, and tax package - and both roll forward today, with Question Time at 2pm likely to be the last sustained debate before the Government's tax reform legislation formally lands tomorrow.

The NDIS Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026 (aph.gov.au) dominated yesterday's main chamber with a multi-hour second reading debate that drew objections from across the crossbench. Issues raised by members included:

• rural and remote access provisions and the bill's treatment of automated eligibility assessments;
• an explicit parallel with the Robodebt scheme in how the legislation delegates decision-making to algorithmic processes without a clear merits review framework;
• implementation risk for culturally and linguistically diverse communities; and
• a binding framework for challenging automated decisions before they take effect.

The Government has not publicly conceded any of these points.

With the Senate Community Affairs Legislation Committee's submission window closing tomorrow, today's continuation of the debate is the crossbench's last real opportunity to shift the bill's terms before it leaves the House.

On tax, Treasurer Chalmers confirmed in Tuesday's Question Time that Thursday is the day: the legislative package covering the Budget's tax reform measures will all be introduced as a single bundle, described by the Treasurer as "broadly revenue neutral over four years."

Today's Matters of Public Importance debate* will likely be the Opposition's attempt to reset on a narrower argument, probably small business CGT carve-outs, where they have slightly more room to move.

*The procedural device in the House of Representatives that allows the Opposition (or occasionally a crossbench member) to bring a specific topic to the floor for 90 minutes of structured debate after Question Time.

Turning to Budget Estimates hearings. (I'll leave it to you and the media for what happened in the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport (aph.gov.au) committee - a rare occurrence in a process sense in any case)

Outgoing NACC (nacc.gov.au) Commissioner Paul Brereton appeared before Legal and Constitutional Affairs (aph.gov.au) in a contested evening hearing. A consequential disclosure came from NACC Inspector (naccinspector.gov.au) Gail Furness, who confirmed that a second, entirely separate investigation into Brereton's conduct is currently underway. The Committee's attention turns to Home Affairs this morning, on national security, cyber and critical infrastructure - and the Royal Commission's open hearing earlier in the week.

In Environment and Communications (aph.gov.au), DCCEEW officials were pressed over Australia's headline emissions claim, that emissions are up to 28 per cent below 2005 levels, with scrutiny revealing that almost the entire reduction relies on contested land-clearing data under the decades-old "Australia clause". This afternoon, attention turns to the eSafety Commissioner (esafety.gov.au), where the now five-months old age assurance scheme will face its first serious committee test.

The weight of public interest will likely be on Finance and Public Administration (aph.gov.au). The new APSC Commissioner appears first at 9am, where the new Commissioner's assessment of APS capability gaps, particularly AI governance readiness (by way of example, note the ANAO's February 2025 (anao.gov.au) finding that the ATO's AI framework was "only partly effective").

The budget's return-to-balance pathway rests on a single $37.8 billion assumption: that NDIS expenditure growth falls from a historical average of 21 per cent a year to three per cent over the forward estimates. Senators will press on whether any sensitivity analysis exists for a scenario where growth tracks at five per cent - and the equity injection to Australian Naval Infrastructure for the AUKUS submarine shipyard upgrades at Osborne and Henderson.

Hit the forward button on this edition to colleagues who should be getting Krafted., or encourage them to sign up directly at (statekraft.au).

— Mia: 私はまだ日本にいます!