Post-Budget breakdown - where to from here

And so it begins...

No doubt you've had a moment or two this morning to read the post-Budget speech headlines and analysis from journalists, commentators, experts and others. I'm here to give you the next steps that make the Budget speech transition into action for policy and legislation - and perhaps more importantly, regulation.

Of consequence for the policy settings and risks, we need to start with the headline fiscal information, which is based on Treasury modelling, advice from portfolio public servants and the politics of the government of the day. The Treasurer's speech, which is technically the second reading of the Appropriation Bill (No. 1) 2026-2027 (aph.gov.au), outlined:

• a deficit of A$31.5 billion in 2026–27, an improvement of A$2.8 billion on MYEFO, with gross debt peaking at A$982 billion at end of this financial year (lower and earlier than previously forecast).growth forecast at 1.75% in 2026–27, down half a percentage point due to the oil shock, rising to 2.25% in 2027–28. Treasury's central assumption is oil at ~US$100/barrel until end of June this year, slowly falling to US$80 by end of June 2027. A more severe scenario (oil peaking at US$200, taking three years to fall) would see unemployment spike to pre-COVID levels and inflation at ~7.25%.inflation forecast to peak around 5% in mid-2026 due to the oil shock, then fall back to 2.5% by mid-2027. Unemployment is expected to rise to around 4.5% (crikey.com.au) in 2026–27 but stay in the "mid-4s".
• payments as a share of GDP is forecast to fall from 26.8% next year to 26.2% by mid-2030.

The remainder of the Appropriations Bills were also read a second time last night, as is usual process.

For the headline measures detailed in the Budget, via the Portfolio Budget Statements, the following are most likely to generate new legislative activity:

• Negative gearing limited to new builds from 1 July 2027 (budget.gov.au). Existing properties held before Budget night are grandfathered. Investors buying established housing after Budget night can still deduct losses against rental income and carry them forward, but can no longer offset them against wages or other income. This will require amendments to the tax legislation and is certain to face a contested Senate passage. CGT discount replaced with inflation indexation from 1 July 2027 (budget.gov.au). The 50% CGT discount is replaced with a discount based on actual inflation, so investors pay tax only on real gains. A minimum 30% tax rate on capital gains is also introduced. New builds retain the option to use the 50% discount. Discretionary trusts face a minimum 30% tax from 1 July 2028. All of this requires legislation.A$250 Working Australians Tax Offset from 2027–28. An ongoing annual tax cut for 13.3 million workers, funded by the housing tax reforms. Requires amending the tax Acts.A$14.8 billion fuel resilience package. The 20% gas export reservation, the Fuel Security Reserve, halving the fuel excise, and the $1 billion in NRF interest-free loans will each need enabling legislation or regulatory instruments.A$37.8 billion NDIS savings. Restoring the NDIS to "original intent" with sustainable growth settings will require amendments to the NDIS Act; politically sensitive and likely to draw crossbench scrutiny.
• Business tax changes: permanent A$20,000 instant asset write-off, two-year loss carry-back for companies up to A$1 billion turnover, loss refundability for startups, expanded venture capital incentives, and R&D Tax Incentive changes (higher offset for core R&D, A$50 million turnover threshold, A$200 million expenditure cap). Each requires legislation.EV FBT transition: full exemption on electric cars under A$75,000 continues until April 2029, after which all EVs move to a 25% FBT discount. Requires amending the FBT legislation.A$53 billion defence uplift and $600 million counter-terrorism package will flow through the appropriation bills and potentially standalone authorising legislation.

Another big day tomorrow with the leader of the Opposition's Budget reply speech. As I said upfront: and so it begins.

— Mia