Budget bills hit the floor

Budget Bills, Budget Estimates and the Royal Commission

The House opened its second sitting week of the winter session this morning with the Appropriation Bills (No. 1 and No. 2) 2026–27 (budget.gov.au) front and centre as the formal legislative vehicle for the Budget and the mechanism through which the Government's contested tax reform package will eventually pass or stall.

• The second reading debate is where the Budget gets argued in full, and today's session sets up the week's primary political fight. Expect push back from the Opposition on the CGT and negative gearing changes (budget.gov.au) and Treasury's central assumption that limiting negative gearing to new builds from July 2027 will meaningfully increase supply without suppressing overall investment.
• The Government's case rests on grandfathering: existing property holders are fully protected, and new build investors can still claim the 50% CGT discount or the new indexation model (budget.gov.au), their choice.
• The Greens are the Senate numbers the Government needs, and its criticism that grandfathering "bakes in the inequality" (sbs.com.au) signals the party will not wave the bills through unchanged. The crossbench position will define whether the Budget's housing and tax measures reach the statute book in their current form or get renegotiated in committee.
• Watch for the Matters of Public Importance (aph.gov.au) debates from Tuesday - these are the Opposition's sharpest daily tool for contesting the Budget's economic assumptions on the public record before Estimates begins cutting into departmental evidence.

Also kicking off, Senate Estimates is how Senators get departmental officials on record before the bills do. All four Group A committees (aph.gov.au) begin their 2026–27 Budget Estimates (aph.gov.au) today and run through Thursday. This first week covers the portfolios where Budget assumptions are hardest to contest in the chamber - because the relevant legislation (tax reform, spending parameters) hasn't yet passed.

The Finance and Public Administration Committee (aph.gov.au) is the Senators' first formal chance to test the fiscal forecasts underpinning the Budget including the forward estimates and how the discretionary trust minimum tax ($1.2 billion projected over four years) was modelled.

The Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee (aph.gov.au) covers Attorney-General's and Home Affairs this week. Notably, the Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion is itself listed as a line item in tonight's program - Commission officials will be questioned by Senators from 8.15pm on the same day the Block 2 hearings open in Sydney. The AFP appears before the committee Thursday afternoon (4.15pm), followed by ASIO at 6.55pm. Senators will have Royal Commission evidence from the day's open proceedings available to them before those agencies take the stand.

The Environment and Communications Committee (aph.gov.au) opens today with environment and water - biodiversity, the circular economy and water resources including the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. The more controversial areas of energy policy including the Budget's net zero transition assumptions and fuel security investments (budget.gov.au) are on tomorrow.

The Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Committee (aph.gov.au) will likely focus on the regional and infrastructure spending envelope and the cross-over issue of fuel security.

The Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion (asc.royalcommission.gov.au) opened its second block of public hearings this morning in Sydney to examine the circumstances of the Bondi attack directly: who knew what, and when. Today is open to the public and will be livestreamed.

Note that subsequent days will be substantially closed, with the Commission citing national security grounds and the need to avoid prejudice to criminal proceedings arising from the attack. The Commissioners will obviously need to manage the tension between public accountability and the integrity of ongoing prosecutions - based on matters so far, a line that will itself become politically contested.

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Big week ahead...

— Mia